Predicting the 2016/2017 Premier League Winner

The Premier League title race looks to be a one-horse thing this time out, with Chelsea seemingly running away at the top. Antonio Conte’s Blues have built an eight-point lead over Arsenal in second, and as far as football predictions go, they will most likely be the 2016/17 Premier League champions.

According to various football predictions that take into account historical data to effect multiple simulations based on teams’ underlying performances, Chelsea are the clear favourites.

The Financial Timesmodel gives Chelsea an 80 percent chance of winning the title, while FiveThirtyEight’s model has them as 68 percent title favourites.

Chelsea aside, the other teams that are still seen as fighting for the title are Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur, and Arsenal, although all of them clock percentages which are way, way behind Chelsea’s.

With only 16 matches left of the season, the title looks headed to Stamford Bridge unless something weird happens. By the looks of it, Chelsea won’t be stopping anytime soon.

Conte’s side have now won 15 of their last 16 games, a run which also included their 13-game winning streak. In a league as tight as the Premier League, such invincible runs stretching months prove to be major factors in deciding the title race, making it easier than usual to make football predictions.

With no European football this season, Chelsea have a maximum of 21 games of the 2016/17 season left and a minimum of 17 games. Furthermore, no team in the history of the Premier League has not gone on to win the title with the advantage Chelsea have at this stage.

However, Chelsea’s back-to-back league games against Liverpool and Arsenal starting 31st January could add some drama to the almost sewn-up title race. The Blues have already been beaten in the reverse fixtures against Liverpool and Arsenal this season, hence their lead could be cut to two points by the time they finish playing Arsenal on 4th February.

That, though, will still leave Chelsea with an advantage, and judging by the way they have played against the other sides—Chelsea have drawn once at Swansea, and Spurs are the only other side to beat them this season—it is inconceivable that anyone other than the Blues will win the title.

From Leicester’s incomprehensible triumph last season to Chelsea’s aura of invincibility this time out, the Premier League has changed course in the space of a year. With one of the most expensive squads in the league, Conte’s side are well on course to lift the title come May.

Ignacio del Valle Ruiz, a true fan of football, is one of the founders of He also manages the content team behind the website, twitter and facebook. In his spare time he enjoys winning FIFA games.

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